FINANCIAL INTELLIGENCE

UNCLASSIFIED

MARKET INDICATORS // GEOPOLITICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS

CURRENCIES
CURRENCY
+0.47%

DXY

US Dollar Index

106.50

H: 106.7 / L: 105.9

CURRENCY
-0.51%

EUR/USD

Euro / US Dollar

1.07

H: 1.078 / L: 1.071

CURRENCY
-0.41%

GBP/USD

British Pound / US Dollar

1.23

H: 1.234 / L: 1.228

CURRENCY
+0.21%

USD/CNY

US Dollar / Chinese Yuan

7.26

H: 7.258 / L: 7.238

CURRENCY
+0.42%

USD/JPY

US Dollar / Japanese Yen

154.85

H: 154.95 / L: 154.15

CURRENCY
+0.43%

USD/RUB

US Dollar / Russian Ruble

93.20

H: 93.35 / L: 92.7

CURRENCY
+0.46%

USD/TRY

US Dollar / Turkish Lira

32.85

H: 32.9 / L: 32.65

INDICES
INDEX
-1.38%

DAX

DAX 40

17,850.00

H: 18,020 / L: 17,800

INDEX
-0.50%

FTSE

FTSE 100

7,850.20

H: 7,895 / L: 7,830

INDEX
-1.57%

NI225

Nikkei 225

37,500.00

H: 37,800 / L: 37,300

INDEX
-1.38%

SPX

S&P 500

4,980.50

H: 5,020 / L: 4,965

INDEX
-0.82%

SSE

Shanghai Composite

3,020.00

H: 3,035 / L: 3,010

COMMODITIES
COMMODITY
+3.11%

CL

Crude Oil WTI

90.22

H: 90.5 / L: 87.2

COMMODITY
+1.09%

NG

Natural Gas

1.85

H: 1.88 / L: 1.82

COMMODITY
+0.90%

W

Wheat

560.00

H: 565 / L: 553

COMMODITY
+1.08%

XAU

Gold (USD/oz)

2,385.50

H: 2,395 / L: 2,355

BONDS / RATES
BOND
+1.19%

DE10Y

German 10-Year Bund

2.55

H: 2.57 / L: 2.5

BOND
+1.53%

US10Y

US 10-Year Treasury

4.65

H: 4.68 / L: 4.55

GEOPOLITICAL-MARKET CORRELATIONS
SPXNEGATIVE / MEDIUM

Geopolitical instability and the potential for renewed conflict in the Middle East create market uncertainty, causing global stock markets to wobble.

ECONOMY

Oil jumps , stocks wobble as Mideast ceasefire hangs in the balance

CLPOSITIVE / HIGH

Military action in the Gulf of Oman, a key shipping route, heightens tensions and raises fears of oil supply disruptions, pushing crude prices higher.

CONFLICT

US Navy destroyer fires on cargo vessel attempting to sail to Iranian port

CLPOSITIVE / HIGH

Escalation of conflict, such as Iran targeting a US military ship, significantly raises geopolitical risk and concerns over oil supply, driving prices up.

CONFLICT

Ceasefire Over ? Iran Targets American Military Ship With Drones After Trump Says US Seized Iranian Cargo Ship

CLPOSITIVE / HIGH

Uncertainty regarding a Middle East ceasefire indicates continued geopolitical risk, which supports higher oil prices due to potential supply disruptions.

ECONOMY

Oil jumps , stocks wobble as Mideast ceasefire hangs in the balance

USD/TRYPOSITIVE / MEDIUM

An Iran war impacting Turkish tourism would reduce foreign currency inflows, potentially weakening the Turkish Lira against the US Dollar.

ECONOMY

Kimse hiçbir yere gitmek istemiyor : İran savaşı Türkiyede turizm sektörünü nasıl etkiliyor ?

IHSGNEGATIVE / MEDIUM

Middle East sentiment can increase global risk aversion, leading to capital outflows from emerging markets and pressuring the Indonesian Stock Exchange Composite Index (IHSG).

ECONOMY

Sentimen Timur Tengah Tekan IHSG , Saham PGEO , ASII & DSSA Jadi Pilihan Indo Premier

IDRNEGATIVE / LOW

Rising LPG prices indicate inflationary pressures, which can erode purchasing power and put mild downward pressure on the Indonesian Rupiah.

ECONOMY

Harga Elpiji Naik , Kelas Menengah Terjepit : Tak Bisa Subsidi , Tak Kuat Harga Pasar

CLPOSITIVE / HIGH

Reports of an Iranian ship seizure by the US directly heighten Middle East tensions, fueling concerns over oil supply and driving oil prices higher.

CONFLICT

Oil prices rise after Trump says Iranian ship seized

TWSENEGATIVE / MEDIUM

Uncertainty in US-Iran negotiations and inflation risks lead to increased volatility and potential downward pressure on the Taiwan Stock Exchange.

ECONOMY

美伊談判添變數 投顧 : 台股高檔震盪留意通膨風險 | 證券

SPXNEGATIVE / LOW

International condemnation of military actions can contribute to broader geopolitical uncertainty, potentially having a minor negative sentiment impact on global equities.

DIPLOMACY

Indonesia condemns Israel at IPU Parliamentary Forum over strikes on Gaza and Lebanon

USD/CNYPOSITIVE / MEDIUM

Repricing of Chinese assets due to security concerns could lead to capital outflow, weakening the Chinese Yuan against the US Dollar.

ECONOMY

BlackRock Fund's Wang Xiaojing: The Security and Independence of Chinese Assets Are Being Repriced

CLPOSITIVE / HIGH

Tehran rejecting US-Iran talks signals escalating tensions, increasing the risk of supply disruptions from the region and causing oil prices to jump.

ECONOMY

Oil prices jump : Brent rises to $96 . 30 , WTI at $90 . 22 as Tehran rejects 2nd round of US - Iran talks

SSENEGATIVE / MEDIUM

Concerns over the security and independence of Chinese assets can deter foreign investment and negatively impact the Shanghai Composite Index.

ECONOMY

BlackRock Fund's Wang Xiaojing: The Security and Independence of Chinese Assets Are Being Repriced

CLPOSITIVE / HIGH

The seizure of an Iranian vessel by the US escalates Middle East tensions, directly threatening oil supply and causing crude oil prices to rebound significantly.

CONFLICT

Vuelve la tensión a Medio Oriente : el petróleo rebota 8 % tras el decomiso de un buque iraní por parte de EEUU

CLPOSITIVE / HIGH

A potential US-Iran war in the Middle East would disrupt oil production and supply, causing crude oil prices to spike.

CONFLICT

Defense and Drone Stocks Strengthen Amid Spreading Fear of US-Iran All-Out War

KOSPINEUTRAL / LOW

Despite renewed US-Iran tensions, the KOSPI index holding firm around 2610 indicates resilience or limited direct impact on South Korean markets at this specific point.

ECONOMY

KOSPI Holds Firm Around 2610 Amid Renewed US-Iran Tensions

CLPOSITIVE / HIGH

Conflict in the Middle East, a major oil-producing region, typically leads to concerns about supply disruptions and higher oil prices.

ECONOMY

Gold , Silver Rate Today Live Updates : Middle East conflict in focus as prices likely to be volatile ; what the outlook ?

XAUPOSITIVE / HIGH

Middle East conflict increases geopolitical risk, driving investors to safe-haven assets like gold, leading to price volatility and upward pressure.

ECONOMY

Gold , Silver Rate Today Live Updates : Middle East conflict in focus as prices likely to be volatile ; what the outlook ?

SPXNEGATIVE / MEDIUM

Fear of a US-Iran war creates market uncertainty, typically leading to a decline in broad market indices like the S&P 500.

CONFLICT

Defense and Drone Stocks Strengthen Amid Spreading Fear of US-Iran All-Out War

XAUPOSITIVE / HIGH

Escalating geopolitical tensions and war fears significantly boost demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

CONFLICT

Defense and Drone Stocks Strengthen Amid Spreading Fear of US-Iran All-Out War

XAUPOSITIVE / MEDIUM

Geopolitical instability, especially concerning critical trade routes, increases safe-haven demand for gold.

DIPLOMACY

Hormuz: The Critical Control Point of Global Power and its Geopolitical Instability

CLPOSITIVE / HIGH

Instability in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil shipping lane, directly threatens global oil supply, leading to price surges.

DIPLOMACY

Hormuz: The Critical Control Point of Global Power and its Geopolitical Instability

SPXNEGATIVE / MEDIUM

Geopolitical instability and potential conflict in the Middle East create global market uncertainty, causing stocks to wobble.

ECONOMY

Oil jumps , stocks wobble as Mideast ceasefire hangs in the balance

CLPOSITIVE / MEDIUM

Persistent geopolitical friction in the Middle East can sustain fears of supply disruptions, supporting higher oil prices.

DIPLOMACY

Analis : Iran Jadi Batu Sandungan bagi Proyek Greater Israel

CLPOSITIVE / HIGH

Uncertainty over a Middle East ceasefire, implying continued or escalating conflict, causes oil prices to jump due to supply risk.

ECONOMY

Oil jumps , stocks wobble as Mideast ceasefire hangs in the balance

XAUPOSITIVE / MEDIUM

Increased geopolitical instability, especially in a critical region like Hormuz, boosts safe-haven assets such as gold.

DIPLOMACY

Hormuz: The Critical Control Point of Global Power and its Geopolitical Instability

IHSGNEGATIVE / MEDIUM

Middle East tensions create investor uncertainty and risk aversion, leading to downward pressure on the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG).

ECONOMY

Sentimen Timur Tengah Tekan IHSG , Saham PGEO , ASII & DSSA Jadi Pilihan Indo Premier

CLPOSITIVE / HIGH

Instability in the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transit choke point, typically leads to higher crude oil prices due to supply disruption fears.

DIPLOMACY

Hormuz: The Critical Control Point of Global Power and its Geopolitical Instability

SPXNEGATIVE / MEDIUM

Geopolitical instability and potential supply chain disruptions can create uncertainty, negatively impacting global stock markets like the S&P 500.

DIPLOMACY

Hormuz: The Critical Control Point of Global Power and its Geopolitical Instability

XAUPOSITIVE / MEDIUM

The breakdown of a ceasefire and escalating tensions increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

ECONOMY

Oil jumps , stocks wobble as Mideast ceasefire hangs in the balance